China's Bearing Manufacturing Continues Rapid Growth

The government of China and the Bearing Industry Association released statistics about the bearing industry and the findings of a recent manufacturing survey. Both cement reports of rapid growth in that country and projections for it to continue accelerating. Covering 107 of China's leading bearing manufacturers, the CBIA survey represents almost half of the country's officially declared output (note: most industry analysts contend China dramatically under-reports bearing production and sales). The survey period covered is January to May, 2003. for the purposes of this survey, a set is considered to be one complete, finished bearing, including an upper/lower or inner/outer where applicable. Survey manufacturers reported production for the period was 498 million sets, up more than 10% over 2002. Actual sales reported were 483 million sets, up 8%. The companies reported their export sales during this period were 185 million sets, up 4.5% from 2002. Domestic consumption in China rose by more than 10%, to 298 million sets from 2002's 270 million sets. Average manufacturer's selling price during the period, for all types of bearings combined, was Rmb 15.81 (USD $1.91) per set, up more than 25% from 2002's Rmb 13.60 ($1.64) per set average. The higher average selling price is traceable to a higher value-added product mix, slight price increases, and wider production of specialty, non-commodity bearings. Officially, China's bearing manufacturers are now running at or near capacity, 2.4 billion to 2.5 billion sets per year. However, the country's true capacity is higher than 2.5 billion sets, probably closer to 4 billion sets, according to many estimates. In commodity ball and roller bearings -- common automotive and light industrial sizes -- production capacity is still significantly higher than demand. The effect, continued downward pressure on commodity bearing prices, is being felt not only in China but worldwide. Official state forecasts put the country's bearing industry manufacturing capacity at almost 5 billion sets by 2005, double today's official capacity and 20% above unofficial estimates. Demand for bearing steel is projected to increase 20% by 2005, to 1.2 million tons. Official forecasts for 2005 put domestic Chinese demand at 3 billion sets, with growth especially strong in plain bearings and automotive engine bearings. By 2005, official bearing exports are expected to exceed Rmb 8.27 billion ($1 billion).